ABNT20 KNHC 232332

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Sam, located about 1600 miles east-southeast of the northern 
Leeward Islands.

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of 
Odette, is located a little more than 600 miles west-northwest of 
the westernmost Azores.  Showers and thunderstorms remain limited 
near the low, and this system has only a brief window of opportunity 
to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone while it moves generally 
south-southeastward over marginally warmer waters during the next 
day or so.  Strong upper-level winds are expected to develop over 
the system beginning tomorrow, which should then limit further 
development.  Additional information on this system, including gale 
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred 
miles southeast of Bermuda is associated with a surface and 
upper-level trough.  Some tropical or subtropical development 
of this system could occur in the next day or two as it moves 
generally north-northwestward.  Strong upper-level winds should 
prohibit further development by this weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by 
the end of this weekend.  Thereafter, environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system as 
it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Pasch

Storm Tracker 6Cyclocane (Hurricane Spaghetti Models)